Investigating the impact of climate change on the phenology stages of autumn wheat in Mazandaran province, Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Water Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran.

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change can affect crop phenological stages. This study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on climatic parameters and wheat phenology stages in Mazandaran province in the north of Iran. For this purpose, the CanESM5 model in three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) was analyzed in three periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2100). In order to evaluate the downscaling model, some indicators such as root mean square error, mean bias error, correlation coefficient, and Nash-Sutcliffe were employed. Also, to investigate the effect of climate change on wheat phenological stages, the growing degree days of each phenological stage were used. The findings indicated a temperature increase of 1.5 to 5 °C across minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. Growing degree days variation results showed that the highest annual growing degree days is in the third period (i.e., 2075-2100), with an increase of 68.5% compared to the base period (1986-2020) under scenario SSP585. Based on the findings, it is projected that climate change will lead to a decrease in growth period length of autumn wheat. This reduction could range from 40 to 70 days, affecting all phenological stages of autumn wheat except for the waxy ripe and maturity stages. As a result of the shortened growth period length, the waxy ripe and maturity stages will occur in colder weather conditions, thereby prolonging the final phenological stages of autumn wheat. Considering the uncertainty of climate models, examining several General Circulation Models can help to express more accurate opinion on growth period length of wheat in the future. 

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

بررسی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل فنولوژی گندم پاییزه در استان مازندران، ایران.

Authors [Persian]

  • مهدی نادی
  • بهاره شامگانی مشهدی
گروه مهندسی اب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، مازندران، ج. ا. ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

تغییرات آب و هوایی انسانی ساخت می تواند بر عملکرد محصول و مراحل فنولوژی گیاهان زراعی تأثیر بگذارد. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر پارامترهای اقلیمی و مراحل فنولوژی گندم در استان مازندران انجام شد. برای این منظور، مدل CanESM5 در سه سناریو SSP126 ،SSP245، SSP585 در سه دوره 2025-2049، 2050-2074، 2075-2100 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. به منظور ارزیابی مدل ریزمقیاس سازی SDSM از شاخص‌های RMSE، MBE ،R و NS استفاده شد. برای بررسی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر مراحل فنولوژی گندم از درجه روز رشد (GDD) هر یک از مراحل فنولوژیکی استفاده شد. یافته ها حاکی از افزایش دمای 1/5 تا 5 درجه سلسیوس در دماهای حداقل، حداکثر و میانگین بود. نتایج تغییرات GDD نشان داد که بالاترین GDD سالانه در دوره سوم (یعنی 2075-2100) با افزایش 68/5 درصدی نسبت به دوره پایه (1986-2020) تحت سناریوی SSP585 است. بر اساس یافته ها، پیش بینی می شود که تغییرات آب و هوایی منجر به کاهش طول دوره رشد (GPL) گندم پاییزه شود. این کاهش می تواند از 40 تا 70 روز متغیر باشد و بر تمام مراحل فنولوژی گندم پاییزه به جز مراحل مومی رسیده و بلوغ تأثیر بگذارد. در نتیجه، مراحل رسیدن و بلوغ مومی شکل در شرایط آب و هوایی سردتر رخ می دهد و در نتیجه مراحل فنولوژی نهایی گندم پاییزه را طولانی می کند. با توجه به عدم قطعیت مدل‌های اقلیمی، بررسی چندین GCM می‌تواند به بیان نظر دقیق‌تر در مورد GPL گندم در آینده کمک کند.

Keywords [Persian]

  • درجه روز رشد
  • ریزمقیاس نمایی
  • سناریوهای اقلیمی

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Iran Agricultural Research
Volume 43, Issue 2
December 2024
Pages 10-23

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