The effects of price explosion and compensatory policies on food security: The Case of chicken meat consumers in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, I. R. Iran.

3 Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, I. R. Iran.

4 Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran.

5 Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, I. R. Iran.

Abstract

Rising food prices have raised concerns about declining food security and increasing food poverty, thereby increasing the vulnerability of the poor to food insecurity. Chicken meat is highly consumed in Iran and plays a key role in the Iranian food basket. Therefore, the explosion in its price in 2020 has posed a threat to the country's food security. Iran's chicken industry is highly dependent on imported inputs, so any increase in exchange rates, global prices, and import restrictions will increase the final price of chicken. In this context, the current study examined the impact of the chicken price explosion and compensation strategies on the amount of calories consumed by consumers. For this purpose, a multi-market equilibrium simulation model was used. The chicken market is linked to the red meat market (beef and sheep). The results showed that an 84% increase in the price of chicken in 2020 would lead to a 41%, 6%, and 14% decrease in the consumption of chicken, beef, and sheep, respectively. In addition, an increase in the price of chicken meat led to a decrease in per capita calorie intake by around 27%. These results indicate that beef and sheep products are not considered viable alternatives to chicken in Iran. Comparing policies that increase nominal income with policies that increase products on the market, the results show that policies that increase products on the market through increased production or imports have more favorable effects on food security. The results also revealed that improving policies related to the import of products will lead to favorable effects on food security compared to nominal income enhancement policies. The results of this study provide policy and decision makers with appropriate adaptation strategies to deal with price shocks in the food sector of the countries.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

اثرات انفجار قیمت و سیاست های جبرانی بر امنیت غذایی: مطالعه موردی: مصرف کنندگان گوشت مرغ در ایران

Authors [Persian]

  • عباس میرزایی 1
  • حسن آزرم 2
  • ناصر ولی زاده 3
  • سید محمد جواد سبحانی 4
  • علی ضیایی 5
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ج. ا. ایران
2 بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ج. ا. ایران
3 بخش ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ج. ا. ایران
4 گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ج. ا. ایران
5 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ج. ا. ایران
Abstract [Persian]

گوشت مرغ در ایران پرمصرف است و در سبد غذایی ایرانیان نقش اساسی دارد. صنعت گوشت مرغ ایران به شدت به نهاده های وارداتی متکی است و بنابراین هرگونه افزایش نرخ ارز، قیمت جهانی و محدودیت واردات، قیمت نهایی گوشت مرغ را افزایش می دهد. در این راستا، تأثیر انفجار قیمت گوشت مرغ و استراتژی‌های جبرانی بر مقدار انرژی دریافتی توسط مصرف‌کنندگان در مطالعه حاضر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، یک مدل شبیه‌سازی تعادل چند بازاری به کار گرفته شد. زیرا، بازار گوشت مرغ به بازار گوشت قرمز (گوساله و گوسفند) مرتبط است. یافته ها نشان داد که افزایش 84 درصدی قیمت گوشت مرغ در سال 2020 منجر به کاهش 41، 6 و 14 درصدی مصرف گوشت مرغ، گوشت گاو و گوسفند شده است. همچنین افزایش قیمت گوشت مرغ باعث کاهش سرانه انرژی دریافتی (حدود 27 درصد) شد. این نتایج نشان داد که محصولات گوشت گاو و گوسفند جایگزین مناسبی برای گوشت مرغ در ایران محسوب نمی شوند. مقایسه سیاست‌های افزایش درآمد اسمی با سیاست‌های افزایش محصولات در بازار نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های افزایش محصولات در بازار از طریق افزایش تولید یا واردات، اثرات مطلوب‌تری بر امنیت غذایی دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که بهبود سیاست‌های مربوط به واردات محصولات در مقایسه با سیاست‌های افزایش درآمد اسمی اثرات مطلوبی بر امنیت غذایی خواهد داشت.

Keywords [Persian]

  • ایران
  • انرژی دریافتی
  • تعادل چند بازاری
  • درآمد سمی

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Iran Agricultural Research
Volume 42, Issue 2
November 2023
Pages 49-58

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