Sustainable irrigation water and land management under multiple uncertainties: Case study of Qorveh plain, Kurdistan, Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Agricultural Economics, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, I. R. Iran

Abstract

The Qorveh plain in Iran is experiencing severe groundwater depletion. This situation necessitates more efficient strategies for allocating agricultural water and land to support long-term regional sustainability. To address climatic, hydrological, and economic uncertainties, this study develops a multi-objective stochastic fuzzy programming (MOSFP) model for optimal cropping-pattern planning. The proposed framework simultaneously maximizes gross economic return and irrigation water productivity (IWP) while minimizing total cultivated area. The latter objective aims to reduce pressure on groundwater resources. The model was applied under different α-cut levels and violation risk probabilities (P). These scenarios were used to evaluate trade-offs between economic benefits and groundwater sustainability. The results indicate that sustainable agricultural management requires substantial changes in cropping patterns. Under the selected optimal scenario (α = 0.6, P = 0.20), the total cultivated area decreased by approximately 25.4% compared with the current pattern. At the same time, economically efficient and strategically important crops were prioritized. The optimized strategy substantially improved irrigation water productivity and reduced dependence on excessive groundwater extraction. Sensitivity analysis showed that increasing risk tolerance from 5% to 25% resulted in only a marginal 2.4% increase in IWP. This finding suggests that accepting higher water-shortage risk provides limited performance gains. These gains may not justify the associated environmental pressures, including potential aquifer degradation and land subsidence. Overall, the proposed framework provides an effective decision-support tool for sustainable agricultural planning under uncertainty. It can help regional policymakers balance economic objectives with long-term groundwater conservation.

Graphical Abstract

Sustainable irrigation water and land management under multiple uncertainties: Case study of Qorveh plain, Kurdistan, Iran

Keywords

References

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Iran Agricultural Research
Volume 45, Issue 2
Issue in Progress
2026
Pages 89-102

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