Effective factors on flood occurrence using the system dynamics approach (Case study: Eskandari watershed-Isfahan, Iran)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Faculty of Natural Resources, Yazd UniversityDepartment of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, I. R. Iran

2 Faculty of Natural ReDepartment of Natural Resources, Yazd University, Yazd, I. R. Iransources, Yazd University

3 Geography Department, Faculty of Arts, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

4 Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, I. R. Iran

Abstract

This study investigates the key factors influencing flood behavior through system dynamics modeling. Initially, the HEC-HMS model was employed to estimate flood levels across sub-basins due to its well-established capacity to simulate hydrological processes and quantify runoff within watershed areas. Its ability to integrate critical parameters, such as land cover and soil permeability, which influence the curve number (CN) and its relationship with runoff and slope, makes HEC-HMS particularly suitable for flood risk assessment. After identifying these relationships, system dynamics modeling was conducted using Vensim to simulate flood dynamics. Vensim’s capability to model complex systems, especially feedback loops and nonlinear interactions among multiple variables, enabled a comprehensive representation of the interdependencies among flood-related factors. Sensitivity analysis highlighted land cover as the most significant variable affecting flood behavior. To evaluate its impact, two rainfall scenarios were analyzed: a 26.75 mm event on January 3, 2011, affecting 30% of the watershed, and an 18 mm event on February 20, 2011, covering 20% of the area. The analysis revealed that precipitation, land cover, watershed size, slope, and soil permeability were the primary drivers of flooding. This study demonstrates the value of combining HEC-HMS and system dynamics modeling to predict floods, particularly in data-scarce watersheds. The integration of these tools facilitates the formulation of mathematical relationships among key hydrological variables, thereby enhancing our understanding and management of flood risks.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Article Title [Persian]

عوامل موثر بر وقوع سیل با رویکرد دینامیک سیستم (مطالعه موردی: حوزه آبخیز اسکندری- اصفهان، ایران)

Authors [Persian]

  • علی طالبی 1
  • زهرا اسلامی 2
  • یحیی زارع مهرجردی 3
  • زینب کریمی 4
1 گروه منایع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ج. ا. ایران
2 گروه منایع طبیعی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ج. ا. ایران
3 گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده هنر، دانشگاه بریتیش کلمبیا، ونکوور، کانادا
4 گروه علوم خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ج. ا. ایران
Abstract [Persian]

این مطالعه عوامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار بر سیلاب‌ها را با استفاده از مدل‌سازی پویایی سیستم بررسی می‌کند. ابتدا مدل HEC-HMS برای محاسبه سطح سیلاب در زیرحوضه‌ها به کار گرفته شد، زیرا این مدل به دلیل توانایی شبیه‌سازی فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیکی و برآورد رواناب در حوضه‌های آبخیز، به طور گسترده‌ای مورد استفاده قرار می‌گیرد. قابلیت این مدل در لحاظ کردن پارامترهای مختلف مانند پوشش زمین و نفوذپذیری خاک که برای درک عدد منحنی (CN) و ارتباط آن با رواناب و شیب ضروری هستند، آن را به گزینه‌ای مناسب برای ارزیابی ریسک سیلاب تبدیل کرد. پس از شناسایی این روابط، مدل‌سازی پویایی سیستم در نرم‌افزار Vensim برای شبیه‌سازی فرآیند سیلاب استفاده شد. انعطاف‌پذیری Vensim در مدل‌سازی سیستم‌های پیچیده، مانند حلقه‌های بازخورد و تعاملات غیرخطی بین متغیرهای متعدد، امکان ارائه نمای دقیقی از پویایی بین عوامل مؤثر بر سیلاب را فراهم کرد. تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد که پوشش زمین بیشترین تأثیر را بر وقوع سیلاب دارد. برای ارزیابی این اثرات، دو سناریو آزمایش شد: یکی بر اساس رویداد بارشی ۳ ژانویه ۲۰۱۱ (۲۶.۷۵ میلی‌متر که ۳۰٪ از حوضه را تحت تأثیر قرار داد) و دیگری با استفاده از رویداد بارشی ۲۰ فوریه ۲۰۱۱ (۱۸ میلی‌متر که ۲۰٪ از منطقه را پوشش داد).نتایج، بارندگی، پوشش زمین، وسعت حوضه، شیب و نفوذپذیری خاک را به عنوان مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر سیلاب شناسایی کرد. این مطالعه با استفاده از مدل‌سازی پویایی سیستم برای ایجاد روابط ریاضی بین این عناصر، ابزاری ارزشمند برای پیش‌بینی سیلاب در حوضه‌های کم‌داده ارائه می‌دهد.

Keywords [Persian]

  • حوضه اسکندری
  • دینامیک سیستم
  • رواناب
  • سیلاب
  • نرم افزار ونسیم

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Iran Agricultural Research
Volume 44, Issue 1
Proofs
April 2025
Pages 103-118

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