اثرات انفجار قیمت و سیاست های جبرانی بر امنیت غذایی: مطالعه موردی: مصرف کنندگان گوشت مرغ در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ج. ا. ایران

2 بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ج. ا. ایران

3 بخش ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ج. ا. ایران

4 گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ج. ا. ایران

چکیده

گوشت مرغ در ایران پرمصرف است و در سبد غذایی ایرانیان نقش اساسی دارد. صنعت گوشت مرغ ایران به شدت به نهاده های وارداتی متکی است و بنابراین هرگونه افزایش نرخ ارز، قیمت جهانی و محدودیت واردات، قیمت نهایی گوشت مرغ را افزایش می دهد. در این راستا، تأثیر انفجار قیمت گوشت مرغ و استراتژی‌های جبرانی بر مقدار انرژی دریافتی توسط مصرف‌کنندگان در مطالعه حاضر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور، یک مدل شبیه‌سازی تعادل چند بازاری به کار گرفته شد. زیرا، بازار گوشت مرغ به بازار گوشت قرمز (گوساله و گوسفند) مرتبط است. یافته ها نشان داد که افزایش 84 درصدی قیمت گوشت مرغ در سال 2020 منجر به کاهش 41، 6 و 14 درصدی مصرف گوشت مرغ، گوشت گاو و گوسفند شده است. همچنین افزایش قیمت گوشت مرغ باعث کاهش سرانه انرژی دریافتی (حدود 27 درصد) شد. این نتایج نشان داد که محصولات گوشت گاو و گوسفند جایگزین مناسبی برای گوشت مرغ در ایران محسوب نمی شوند. مقایسه سیاست‌های افزایش درآمد اسمی با سیاست‌های افزایش محصولات در بازار نشان می‌دهد که سیاست‌های افزایش محصولات در بازار از طریق افزایش تولید یا واردات، اثرات مطلوب‌تری بر امنیت غذایی دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که بهبود سیاست‌های مربوط به واردات محصولات در مقایسه با سیاست‌های افزایش درآمد اسمی اثرات مطلوبی بر امنیت غذایی خواهد داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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