ارزیابی و مقایسه روش های ترکیبی به منظور پیش بینی تبخیر-تعرق گیاه سیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه رازی،

2 دانشگاه بوعلی سینا،

3 دانشگاه گنبد کاووس

چکیده

چکیده- روش­های زیادی برای تخمین تبخیر-تعرق وجود دارد که نتایج آن­ها در مناطق مختلف، متفاوت است. در این تحقیق ابتدا تبخیر-تعرق گیاه سیر توسط لایسیمتر اندازه­گیری شد و با 13 روش مختلف مقایسه گردید تا بهترین روابط تعیین گردد. هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی توانایی روش­های ترکیبی به منظور بهبود دقت تخمین می­باشد. نتایج نشان داد 5 روش پنمن فائو، پنمنASCE ، پنمن کیمبرلی، پنمن و بلانی کریدل دارای بیشترین دقت در تخمین تبخیر-تعرق می‌باشند. نتایج این 5 روش توسط 3 روش ترکیبی میانگین حسابی(C-SAM)، رگرسیون خطی و فازی-عصبی(C-ANFIS) با یکدیگر ترکیب شدند.نتایج این 5 روش با استفاده از سه روش ترکیبی میانگین حسابی، رگرسیون خطی(C-MLR) و فازی-عصبی با یکدیگر ترکیب شدند. مقایسه نتایج در مرحله صحت‌سنجی نشان داد اگرچه روش میانگین حسابی از رابطه‌ی ساده‌تری نسبت به رگرسیون خطی استفاده می‌نماید اما نتایج آن از رگرسیون خطی بهتر می‌باشد. به طور کلی دو روش ترکیبی میانگین حسابی و رگرسیون خطی نتایج را نسبت به بهترین روش تخمین تبخیر-تعرق (پنمن فائو) به مقدار قابل توجهی بهبود نمی‌دهد اما روش ترکیبی فازی-عصبی تبخیر-تعرق را بهتر از روش­های دیگر تخمین می­زند. بر مبنای نتایج این تحقیق روش ترکیبی عصبی-فازی به منظور پیش‌بینی تبخیر-تعرق پیشنهاد می‌گردد.

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