Sugarcane transportation process modeling by time series approach

Document Type: Full Article

Authors

1 1Department of Agricultural Machinery and Mechanization Engineering, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran, I. R. Iran

2 Department of Agricultural Economic, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Ahvaz, Iran, I. R. Iran

Abstract

Sugarcane is one of the severely perishable crops that is used as raw material for white sugar production. Sucrose content of the sugarcane which is of high commercial value decreases in quality due to pre-harvest burning, high ambient temperature, kill-to-mill delays as well as microbial contaminations. Delays in sugarcane transportation are the most important risks which can affect the quality and quantity of the product. Delay in milling of the harvested sugarcane is caused by various reasons in agro-industry units including factory downtime, breakdowns of tractors in the waiting line at factory, tractor accident in factory yard and staff shift changes creating long queues. In order to reduce delays, the present study attempted to forecast arrival and service level of tractor drawn carts which transfer burned or cut canes from farm to mill. The univariate ARMA models were applied to forecast arrival and service level. The RMSE and MAPE were also used to evaluate precision of our forecast. The results of models demonstrated that ARMA(4,3) and ARMA(4,2) models are suitable for arrival and service level of tractor drawn carts, respectively. The predicted values trend of arrival, and service level truly reflected the actual values of arrival and service level as well as queue system tendency. The values of MSE, RMSE and MAPE that indicate accuracy of the forecasted carts arrival and service level were relatively low. The estimated models can be used to forecast values of arrival and service levels of tractor drawn carts for subsequent hours during harvest season.

Keywords


Article Title [Persian]

مدل‌سازی فرآیند حمل نیشکر با استفاده از دیدگاه سری‌های زمانی

Authors [Persian]

  • فاطمه افشارنیا 1
  • افشین مرزبان 1
  • عباس عبد شاهی 2
1 گروه مهندسی ماشین‌های کشاورزی و مکانیزاسیون، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ج. ا. ایران
2 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، اهواز، ج. ا. ایران.
Abstract [Persian]

نیشکر یکی از محصولات به شدت فسادپذیر است که به صورت مواد خام برای تولید شکر سفید بکار می­رود. این منبع تجاری ساکارز بدلیل سوزاندن قبل از برداشت، دمای بالای محیط، تأخیر در آسیاب و همین­طور آلودگی­های میکروبی به سرعت دچار افت کیفیت می­شود. یکی از مهم‌ترین ریسک­های حمل و نقل نیشکر تأخیراتی است که در این فرآیند می­تواند کیفیت و کمیت محصول را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. تأخیر در آسیاب کردن نیشکر برداشت شده به دلایل مختلفی از جمله خرابی کارخانه، خرابی تراکتورهای در صف، تصادف تراکتورها در محیط کارخانه و تغییر شیفت در کشت و صنعت­ها بوجود می­آید که سبب ایجاد صفی طولانی می­گردد. از این­رو، در این پژوهش تلاش گردید به پیش­بینی سیستم صف تحویل محصول نیشکر به کارخانه تولید شکر با استفاده از سری­های زمانی پرداخته شود تا زمینه­های بهسازی آن فراهم گردد. مدل ARMA جهت پیش­بینی نرخ ورود و نرخ سرویس تراکتورهای حمل نیشکر بکار گرفته شد و شاخص­های RMSE و MAPE جهت ارزیابی دقت پیش­بینی استفاده شدند. نتایج برازش مدل­ها نشان داد که به ترتیب مدل­های ARMA(4,3) و ARMA(4,2) برای نرخ ورود و نرخ سرویس تراکتورهای حمل نی مناسب بودند. روند مقادیر پیش­بینی­شده نرخ ورود و نرخ سرویس به خوبی بر مقادیر واقعی منطبق بود. با کاربرد این مدل­های توسعه یافته، مقادیر پیش­بینی شده را می­توان برای بقیه فصل برداشت نیشکر بکار برد و از تأخیرات بوجود آمده که موجب ضایع شدن مقادیر زیادی از محصول می­شود کاست.

Keywords [Persian]

  • ARMA
  • تأخیر در آسیاب کردن
  • نیشکر
  • حمل و نقل
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